The Myth of the “Best Time”: Why Tuesday at 10 AM is Costing Sales for your Ecommerce

Introduction

Finding the “perfect moment” to send a newsletter has historically been one of the most elusive challenges in digital marketing. For years, marketers relied on generalized best practices, blasting massive campaigns at standardized times (such as Tuesday mornings). However, the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning has rendered this static approach obsolete. Today, Send Time Optimization (STO) technologies allow companies to intercept every single user at the exact moment they are most likely to engage, maximizing open rates and conversions.

In this article, we will analyze how AI is redefining the concept of timing in email marketing, moving beyond the limits of traditional segmentation and offering a competitive advantage based on behavioral data.

1. The Failure of Static Scheduling

Traditionally, email campaign scheduling was based on aggregated data. Companies analyzed the average open rates of their database and selected a single time slot for everyone. This method, however, ignores individual variability.According to a foundational study by Sahni, N. S., et al. (2018), the effectiveness of marketing communication depends drastically on the temporal dynamics of the individual consumer. Sending an email based on an average means, statistically, missing the ideal window for the majority of recipients. In an era of information overload, a message received at the wrong time is quickly buried by other communications, drastically reducing the campaign’s visibility and effectiveness.

2. How Send Time Optimization (STO) Works

The integration of AI into email marketing introduces the concept of prediction. Send Time Optimization algorithms do not just look at the clock; they analyze the behavioral history of each user.

As highlighted by Huang and Rust (2021) in the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, mechanical and analytical Artificial Intelligence allows for the processing of complex patterns that escape human analysis. The system examines variables such as:

  • Open times of previous emails.
  • Browsing moments on the website.
  • Device usage (desktop vs. mobile) during different time slots.
  • Purchase frequency in relation to time.

Thanks to this data, the AI builds a predictive model for every single subscriber, determining not a time window for the “group,” but a specific sending time for the individual.

3. Benefits of AI Timing on Business Metrics

Increased Open Rates

The most immediate benefit of using AI for timing is the increase in perceived relevance. When an email arrives at the moment the user is already checking their inbox or using their smartphone, attention is at its peak.

Industry studies and analyses, such as those reported by Kumar et al. (2019), suggest that AI-driven temporal alignment reduces cognitive friction and increases the likelihood of immediate interaction.

Improved Conversion Rates

It is not just about opening the email, but about taking action. AI is capable of distinguishing between the moment a user merely reads (e.g., early morning) and the moment they are inclined to purchase (e.g., evening or weekend). By sending transactional or promotional communications during the peak propensity-to-buy window, companies register a significant increase in ROI (Return on Investment).

4. Beyond A/B Testing: Towards Continuous Automation

For decades, the only tool available to marketers for optimizing timing was A/B Testing (e.g., sending to Group A at 9:00 AM and Group B at 2:00 PM). While useful, this method remains imperfect because it seeks a “one-size-fits-all” solution for a subgroup.

The modern approach, described in recent literature on marketing automation, involves continuous learning. The algorithm is not static: if a user’s habits change (for example, they change jobs and start reading emails in the evening instead of the morning), the AI detects the shift in the behavioral pattern and automatically adapts the next send time without human intervention. This ensures a scalability of marketing operations that is impossible to replicate manually.

5. Challenges and Ethical Considerations

Implementing STO systems requires a solid data foundation. To function accurately, Machine Learning algorithms need a history of interactions; therefore, effectiveness increases over time as the system “learns” about the user.

Furthermore, as emphasized by Verma et al. (2021), the intensive use of behavioral data for temporal prediction must always be balanced with respect for privacy and compliance with current regulations (such as GDPR in Europe). It is fundamental that the collection of temporal data is transparent and aimed at improving the Customer Experience (CX).

In conclusion, stopping the search for the absolute “best” time and starting to leverage the “right” time for the single individual represents the next industry standard. AI transforms timing from a gamble based on statistical averages into an exact predictive science.

References

Huang, M.-H., & Rust, R. T.** (2021). A strategic framework for artificial intelligence in marketing. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 49(1), 30–50.

Sahni, N. S., Wheeler, S. C., & Chintagunta, P. (2018). Personalization in Email Marketing: The Role of Non-informative Advertising Content. Marketing Science, 37(1), 236–258.

Kumar, V., Rajan, B., Venkatesan, R., & Lecinski, J. (2019). Understanding the role of Artificial Intelligence in personalized engagement marketing. California Management Review, 61(4), 135-155.

Verma, S., Sharma, R., Deb, S., & Maitra, D. (2021). Artificial intelligence in marketing: Systematic review and future research direction. International Journal of Information Management Data Insights, 1(1).